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Cryptoverse: Bitcoin digs in for a bumpy new year

By Lisa Pauline Mattackal (Reuters) - Bitcoin's looking steady in 2023. But it's only been a week. Cryptocurrencies have crept into the new year, licking their wounds after the...
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By Lisa Pauline Mattackal

(Reuters) - Bitcoin's looking steady in 2023. But it's only been a week.

Cryptocurrencies have crept into the new year, licking their wounds after the carnage of 2022. The overall global crypto market cap has risen 5% to $871 billion since Jan. 1, but it's still down over 57% from this time last year.

Bitcoin itself has gained 4.3% since the start of 2023, though stuck in a narrow range between $16,500 and $17,300. The world's biggest cryptocurrency is eerily subdued, with its 7-day volatility dropping to levels not seen since October 2018, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.

"It will be a year for the patient, as we do not anticipate prices nearing former all-time highs in 2023," said Vetle Lunde, senior analyst at Arcane Research.

Cryptocurrency spot trading volumes remain similarly muted after slumping about 48% in December versus the previous month to $544 billion, their lowest level since December 2019, CryptoCompare data showed.

While lower trading volumes are common around the turn of the year, the crypto market apathy has been exacerbated by a "general exodus" of active retail investors, according to Arcane Research.

For some market players, though, subdued sounds pretty good after the bitcoin bloodbath of 2022.

"I feel encouraged by the floor we've seen forming under bitcoin, it shows there's a lot of demand around $16,000 and $17,000 levels," said Callie Cox, investment analyst at investment platform eToro.

So what happens now?

Graphic: Calm on crypto front https://www.reuters.com/graphics/FINTECH-CRYPTO/WEEKLY/jnpwywelqpw/chart.png

THE BULL'S TALE

Marcus Sotiriou, analyst at digital asset broker GlobalBlock, pointed to tightening Bollinger bands - a technical indicator tracking price and volatility - on bitcoin charts.

The bands are at their tightest since July 2020, and such tightening has historically preceded aggressive moves to the upside for bitcoin, he added.

This possible scenario was echoed by Arcane Research's Lunde.

"These low volatility periods rarely last for long, and volatility compression periods have previously tended to be followed by sharp moves, even in stagnant markets," he said.

Additionally, funding rates for perpetual bitcoin futures have been positive since Dec. 19, according to Coinglass data, meaning traders are betting on prices to rise and will pay to keep their long positions open.

THE BEAR'S TALE

On the other hand, cryptocurrencies remain at the mercy of macroeconomic headwinds as worries whirl around a slowing global economy.

"The weaker economic outlook means people have less disposable income to invest in what they deem as risky assets like crypto," said GlobalBlock's Sotiriou.

Economic uncertainty could send investors running for the safety of the U.S. dollar, which tends to be inversely correlated to bitcoin, said Dalvir Mandara, quantitative researcher at MacroHive.

"The macro backdrop is still bearish for crypto," Mandara added in a note on Thursday.

Meanwhile, crypto corporates face the fallout from the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX exchange.

Some major firms have started laying off employees in a bid to save costs, while Silvergate Bank reported an $8 billion drop in crypto-related deposits which sent its shares plunging nearly 43%.

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

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Moving Avg:

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USD/JPY

157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Buy (9)

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AUD/USD

0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

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Neutral

Moving Avg:

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USD/CAD

1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

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EUR/JPY

168.32

+0.10 (+0.06%)

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EUR/CHF

0.9808

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2,295.80

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S&P 500

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DAX

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Hang Seng

17,763.03

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IBEX 35

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BASF SE NA O.N.

49.155

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Bayer AG NA

27.35

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Adidas AG

226.40

-5.90 (-2.54%)

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.714

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Siemens AG Class N

175.90

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15.010

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    EUR/USD 1.0658 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2475 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 157.91 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6469 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3780 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 168.32 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9808 Neutral  
    Gold 2,295.80 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 26.677 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 4.5305 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 81.14 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 85.62 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 1.946 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 213.73 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,920.55 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 5,035.69 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 17,921.95 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 8,144.13 Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,763.03 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,973.05 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 10,854.40 Neutral  
    BASF 49.155 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 27.35 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 266.60 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 226.40 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 6.714 Neutral  
    Siemens AG 175.90 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 15.010 Neutral  
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