Dollar eases, stocks gain ahead of Powell's speech

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Pedestrians wait to cross a road at a junction near a giant display of stock indexes in Shanghai, China August 3, 2022. REUTERS/Aly Song

By Herbert Lash and Alun John

NEW YORK/HONG KONG (Reuters) - The dollar eased while U.S. and European stocks edged higher on Wednesday ahead of a speech at the end of the week by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that may signal a reaffirmation or a "pivot" from an aggressive policy to tame runaway inflation.

Gold prices edged lower on a dollar that has been gaining strength as investors shifted recent expectations the Fed could slow its hiking of interest rates to a view that Powell remains committed to bringing inflation down to the Fed's target of 2%.

Shares in Europe and on Wall Street rose while benchmark U.S., UK and European lending rates jumped as surging energy prices and their impact on inflation gave investors pause. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose further above 3%, while two-year UK gilts hit 2.955%, a 13-year high.

"When the 10-year climbs above 3%, all of a sudden stocks have a harder time. We saw that in May, we saw that in June, we're seeing it again now," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial (NYSE:AMP) in Troy, Michigan.

"That will be a headwind, as long as the 10-year remains above 3%," he said.

Investors expect Powell to strike a hawkish tone, as the market braces for another Fed policy meeting in September that will raise rates by either 50 or 75 basis points.

Traders of fed funds futures are pricing in a 56.5% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 75 basis points next month, and a 43.5% probability of a 50 basis points increase.

"The market is gyrating between this ultra, ultra hawkish view and this ultra, ultra dovish view" of Jackson Hole, Saglimbene said. "It's going to be somewhere in the middle."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.07%, the S&P 500 gained 0.16% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.33%.

In Europe, the pan-regional STOXX 600 index rose 0.32% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe was flat.

The euro fell to a two-decade low but later rebounded to trade 0.10% higher at $0.9976.

New orders for U.S.-made capital goods increased in July, but the pace slowed from the prior month, suggesting that business spending on equipment could struggle to rebound after contracting in the second quarter.

Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose 0.4% last month, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. These so-called core capital goods orders surged 0.9% in June.

Germany's 10-year government bond yield, the benchmark for the block, to a fresh eight-week high of 1.38%.

Benchmark Brent crude dipped after earlier rising above $100 a barrel. Saudi Arabia has suggested that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may consider cutting output, though bearish economic signals from central bankers are weighing.

U.S. crude was down 0.5% at $93.27 a barrel and Brent was at $99.81, or 0.41% lower on the day.

U.S. gold futures eased 0.3% to $1,758.60.