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Dollar firm as traders brace for U.S. inflation data

By Tom Westbrook SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar held near multi-month highs on Friday as investors warily awaited U.S. inflation data, while the pound nursed modest losses...
Dollar firm as traders brace for U.S. inflation data © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A U.S. five dollar note is seen in this illustration photo June 1, 2017. REUTERS/Thomas White/Illustration/File Photo

By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar held near multi-month highs on Friday as investors warily awaited U.S. inflation data, while the pound nursed modest losses after Bank of England (BoE) policymakers leaned away from flagging rate rises.

Early Asia trade was steady, with the euro pinned below its 200-day moving average at $1.1930 and the yen just short of a 15-month low at 110.955 per dollar.

The dollar vaulted to its highest levels since March against the euro last week - and to its highest since March 2020 on the yen - after the U.S. Federal Reserve surprised markets by projecting interest rate rises sooner than expected in 2023.

Subsequent rhetoric from Fed chair Jerome Powell seems to have calmed nerves in bond and stock markets about hikes any time soon, but the dollar has held its gains and traders are wary of further rises if inflation is hotter than forecast.

Economists polled by Reuters expect core personal consumption expenditures index to post year-on-year gains of 3.4%, a rise even faster than the nearly three-decade high pace of 3.1% recorded last month. The data is due at 1230 GMT.

"The dollar can jump if inflation surprises to the upside," said Joe Capurso, head of international economics at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY) in Sydney. "Upside inflation surprises have been the trend in the U.S. recently," he said.

The stronger dollar has kept other majors in check through the week, even against currencies where rate rises are likely to land sooner than in the United States.

The New Zealand dollar has crept back above its 200-day moving average to $0.7063, but it remains well shy of February highs above 74 cents. In Australia, despite booming terms of trade, the Aussie held at $0.7584. [AUD/]

"A more balanced dollar outlook prevails after the Fed's decisive policy shift," Westpac strategist Sean Callow said.

"The Australian dollar's strong support from commodity prices produces fair value estimates in the mid-0.80s," he said.

"Yet recent price action has been in the mid-0.70s. With risk appetite looking resilient, any narrowing in this gap probably depends on how far the (Fed)-inspired U.S. dollar recovery can extend."

The U.S. dollar index was steady at 91.833, off a week-ago high of 92.408 but clear of troughs below 90 that it had plumbed in May.

Sterling had started to move away from its post-Fed lows, but was the weakest G10 currency overnight and fell 0.3% after the BoE failed to provide any hint it was in a hurry to hike rates and warned against "premature tightening".

"Some in the market obviously positioned for a less dovish or a hawkish tilt," said Tapas Strickland, director of economics and markets at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY).

In emerging markets, the Mexican peso surged to a two-week high following a surprise benchmark interest rate hike.

Bitcoin was steady at $34,380 and headed for a small weekly loss, as it has recovered most of a plunge below $30,000.

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

USD/JPY

157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

USD/CAD

1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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EUR/JPY

168.32

+0.10 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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EUR/CHF

0.9808

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Sell (2)

Gold Futures

2,295.80

-7.10 (-0.31%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Silver Futures

26.677

+0.023 (+0.09%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (10)

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Copper Futures

4.5305

-0.0105 (-0.23%)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.14

-0.79 (-0.96%)

Summary

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Brent Oil Futures

85.62

-0.71 (-0.82%)

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1.946

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US Coffee C Futures

213.73

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Euro Stoxx 50

4,920.55

-60.54 (-1.22%)

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S&P 500

5,035.69

-80.48 (-1.57%)

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DAX

17,921.95

-196.37 (-1.08%)

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FTSE 100

8,144.13

-2.90 (-0.04%)

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Sell

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Hang Seng

17,763.03

+16.12 (+0.09%)

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Sell (12)

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Sell (6)

US Small Cap 2000

1,973.05

-42.98 (-2.13%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

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IBEX 35

10,854.40

-246.40 (-2.22%)

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Sell (6)

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Sell (3)

BASF SE NA O.N.

49.155

+0.100 (+0.20%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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Bayer AG NA

27.35

-0.24 (-0.87%)

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↑ Sell

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

266.60

+0.30 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Adidas AG

226.40

-5.90 (-2.54%)

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.714

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Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Siemens AG Class N

175.90

-1.74 (-0.98%)

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Deutsche Bank AG

15.010

-0.094 (-0.62%)

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Moving Avg:

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 EUR/USD1.0658↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2475↑ Sell
 USD/JPY157.91↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6469Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3780↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY168.32↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9808Neutral
 Gold2,295.80↑ Sell
 Silver26.677↑ Sell
 Copper4.5305↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI81.14↑ Sell
 Brent Oil85.62↑ Sell
 Natural Gas1.946↑ Sell
 US Coffee C213.73↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,920.55↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,035.69↑ Sell
 DAX17,921.95↑ Sell
 FTSE 1008,144.13Sell
 Hang Seng17,763.03↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,973.05↑ Sell
 IBEX 3510,854.40Neutral
 BASF49.155↑ Sell
 Bayer27.35↑ Sell
 Allianz266.60↑ Sell
 Adidas226.40↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.714Neutral
 Siemens AG175.90↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG15.010Neutral
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