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Dollar set for best month since March, payrolls test looms

By Ritvik Carvalho LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar was heading for its biggest monthly rise since March on Wednesday, supported by traders' trepidation ahead of unpredictable U.S....
Dollar set for best month since March, payrolls test looms © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An employee of the Korea Exchange Bank counts one hundred U.S. dollar notes during a photo opportunity at the bank's headquarters in Seoul April 28, 2010. REUTERS/Jo Yong-Hak/File Photo

By Ritvik Carvalho

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar was heading for its biggest monthly rise since March on Wednesday, supported by traders' trepidation ahead of unpredictable U.S. labour data and concern over the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant.

The dollar has gained about 2.5% against a basket of currencies this month, mostly in the wake of a surprisingly hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve's rates outlook. Traders think it could move sharply in either direction if labour data this week provides clues as to the pressure on policymakers.

On Wednesday, risk-sensitive and commodity-exposed currencies nursed the largest losses, after the Australian and New Zealand dollars had fallen about 0.7% against the dollar on Tuesday and the Canadian dollar had lost about 0.5%.

They were steady in the European session, as were the safe-havens of the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc which held their own through Tuesday. That left the euro at $1.1900, the yen at 110.49 per dollar and the Aussie at $0.7518 - all within sight of recent milestone lows against the dollar.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was steady at 92.041 after touching a one-week high of 92.194 on Tuesday. It has gained 2.5% through June.

A test of the near-term dollar outlook arrives this week with U.S. labour data. Signs of strength could add to inflationary pressure on policymakers to move sooner on rate hikes, while a miss might put some padding into the timeline.

Private payrolls are due later on Wednesday, but the main focus is on more comprehensive labour figures due on Friday.

Economists polled by Reuters forecast private payrolls showing a gain of 600,000 in June, a slowdown from a month ago when 987,000 jobs were created.

"Last month, a 978k increase did not prove a particularly accurate predictor for the NFP figure (+559k), but we suspect the market will be on edge over any strength in the US labour market which would encourage Fed hawkishness," ING said in a note to clients.

The average forecast for Friday's non-farm payrolls is for a rise of 690,000 jobs, but the variation among the 63 estimates is large, ranging from 400,000 to more than a million.

Besides the looming data, a fresh spike in global coronavirus infections and in restrictive measures to contain them kept a lid on currency movements.

Case counts are hitting daily records in Indonesia, lockdowns are being extended in Malaysia and expanded in Australia, while travellers from Britain are facing new restrictions as the contagious Delta variant spreads.

Paul Mackel, global head of FX research at HSBC, said currency markets seemed to be in transition from closely tracking the ebb and flow of risk sentiment towards a greater sensitivity to interest rates, driving a shakeout that has lifted the dollar.

"There's been a lot of speculative build-up of short dollar positions over the last couple of months and we think that these are being washed out," Mackel told reporters, speaking during an outlook call.

Indeed, data showed the sharpest fall in the value of bets against the dollar in three months occurred last week, a boost for the greenback as the shorts buy dollars to close positions.

Sterling traded flat at $1.3832.

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

USD/JPY

157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

USD/CAD

1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

168.32

+0.10 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

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Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

0.9808

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

2,295.80

-7.10 (-0.31%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Silver Futures

26.677

+0.023 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Copper Futures

4.5305

-0.0105 (-0.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Buy (8)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.14

-0.79 (-0.96%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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Brent Oil Futures

85.62

-0.71 (-0.82%)

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Natural Gas Futures

1.946

-0.009 (-0.46%)

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US Coffee C Futures

213.73

-13.77 (-6.05%)

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Sell (9)

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Sell (10)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,920.55

-60.54 (-1.22%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (8)

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Sell (7)

S&P 500

5,035.69

-80.48 (-1.57%)

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↑ Sell

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DAX

17,921.95

-196.37 (-1.08%)

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FTSE 100

8,144.13

-2.90 (-0.04%)

Summary

Sell

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Sell (4)

Hang Seng

17,763.03

+16.12 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

US Small Cap 2000

1,973.05

-42.98 (-2.13%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

IBEX 35

10,854.40

-246.40 (-2.22%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

BASF SE NA O.N.

49.155

+0.100 (+0.20%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

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Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Bayer AG NA

27.35

-0.24 (-0.87%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

266.60

+0.30 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

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Sell (5)

Adidas AG

226.40

-5.90 (-2.54%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (7)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.714

-0.028 (-0.42%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Sell (9)

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Sell (1)

Siemens AG Class N

175.90

-1.74 (-0.98%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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Deutsche Bank AG

15.010

-0.094 (-0.62%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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Sell (2)

 EUR/USD1.0658↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2475↑ Sell
 USD/JPY157.91↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6469Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3780↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY168.32↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9808Neutral
 Gold2,295.80↑ Sell
 Silver26.677↑ Sell
 Copper4.5305↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI81.14↑ Sell
 Brent Oil85.62↑ Sell
 Natural Gas1.946↑ Sell
 US Coffee C213.73↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,920.55↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,035.69↑ Sell
 DAX17,921.95↑ Sell
 FTSE 1008,144.13Sell
 Hang Seng17,763.03↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,973.05↑ Sell
 IBEX 3510,854.40Neutral
 BASF49.155↑ Sell
 Bayer27.35↑ Sell
 Allianz266.60↑ Sell
 Adidas226.40↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.714Neutral
 Siemens AG175.90↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG15.010Neutral
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SJC Eximbank8,300/ 8,500
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