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  4. Falling Inflation and Positioning Will Fuel Further Market Recovery - JPMorgan
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Falling Inflation and Positioning Will Fuel Further Market Recovery - JPMorgan

By Senad Karaahmetovic Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan's chief global markets strategist, reiterated his bullish view on U.S. equities as he believes inflation “will resolve on its...
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Falling Inflation and Positioning Will Fuel Further Market Recovery - JPMorgan © Reuters. Falling Inflation and Positioning Will Fuel Further Market Recovery - JPMorgan's Kolanovic

By Senad Karaahmetovic

Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan's chief global markets strategist, reiterated his bullish view on U.S. equities as he believes inflation “will resolve on its own as distortions fade.”

Falling CPI numbers in the coming months are likely to drive a Fed pivot, which will be a major positive catalyst for stocks.

“Incoming CPI releases (e.g. recent declines in gasoline, airfares, used cars, etc.) continue to support our call for a large but uneven fall in 2H22 inflation. The largest disinflationary impulse is expected to come in the US followed by EM, while Europe inflation will remain higher due to Energy prices,” Kolanovic said in a client note.

In addition to declining inflation, the rebound in equities is underpinned by bearish positioning. Moreover, JPM’s top strategist sees the U.S. midterm elections as a potential positive catalyst for risk assets in Q4.

Kolanovic also argues that the Fed would be making a mistake if it increases the risk of a hawkish policy error and endangers the market stability.

“We remain of the view that the 2020s will look nothing like the 2010s, and many of the investment trends – e.g. Tech, ESG, or low vol investing – will be turned upside down,” Kolanovic concluded.

Results from last week’s survey conducted by JPMorgan show that equity exposure/sentiment is ~44th percentile with only 38% of investors planning to increase equity exposure, which is a record low.

77% of survey respondents said we’ve seen the peak in US core CPI. As far as expectations for Jackson Hole are concerned, every second surveyed investor expects no change in policy and tone from Powell while 43% expect a more hawkish Fed.

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

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Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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GBP/USD

1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

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USD/JPY

157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Indicators:

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AUD/USD

0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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USD/CAD

1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

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EUR/JPY

168.32

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EUR/CHF

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Gold Futures

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Silver Futures

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4.5305

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85.62

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Euro Stoxx 50

4,920.55

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S&P 500

5,035.69

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DAX

17,921.95

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FTSE 100

8,144.13

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Sell

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Hang Seng

17,763.03

+16.12 (+0.09%)

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US Small Cap 2000

1,973.05

-42.98 (-2.13%)

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IBEX 35

10,854.40

-246.40 (-2.22%)

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BASF SE NA O.N.

49.155

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Bayer AG NA

27.35

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

266.60

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226.40

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.714

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Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Siemens AG Class N

175.90

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15.010

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Summary

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Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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Sell (2)

 EUR/USD1.0658↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2475↑ Sell
 USD/JPY157.91↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6469Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3780↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY168.32↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9808Neutral
 Gold2,295.80↑ Sell
 Silver26.677↑ Sell
 Copper4.5305↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI81.14↑ Sell
 Brent Oil85.62↑ Sell
 Natural Gas1.946↑ Sell
 US Coffee C213.73↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,920.55↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,035.69↑ Sell
 DAX17,921.95↑ Sell
 FTSE 1008,144.13Sell
 Hang Seng17,763.03↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,973.05↑ Sell
 IBEX 3510,854.40Neutral
 BASF49.155↑ Sell
 Bayer27.35↑ Sell
 Allianz266.60↑ Sell
 Adidas226.40↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.714Neutral
 Siemens AG175.90↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG15.010Neutral
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