Fed Chatter or No, Gold as Anemic as Ever

© Reuters.

By Barani Krishnan

AiVIF.com -- Gold has few friends, it seems, even when the Fed is not around.

The central bank’s bogeyman avatar for gold is conspicuously missing this week as Fed officials refrain from making comments in customary observance of the 10-day moratorium on speeches before the July 27 decision on rates.

The Dollar Index, pitted against six major currencies, also slid for a third day in a row, hovering at under 107 after last week’s two-decade high of 109.14.

But gold has barely gotten higher since Monday’s trading began, despite having all the opportunity to make up for last week’s 11-month low of $1,695.

In Tuesday’s session, the most-active gold futures contract on New York’s Comex, August, settled up a mere 50 cents to $1,710.70, after the previous day’s advance of $6.60, or 0.5%.

“Gold is struggling today even as the dollar falls around two-thirds of one percent,” observed Craig Erlam, analyst at online trading platform OANDA.

“The prospect of it breaking away from $1,700 to the upside is looking increasingly slim if it can't even do so when the dollar has fallen more than 2.5% from its highs over the last few sessions.”

The dollar hit near 20-year highs last week after the US Consumer Price Index came in at a four-decade peak of 9.1% for the year to June, prompting some money market traders to bet on a record 100-basis point Fed rate hike for July. The expectation has since lowered to consensus for a 75-basis point hike.

Adding to the vacuum of Fed speak was an unusually light week for US macroeconomic data that allowed traders greater discretion on direction, fund flows and trade volumes. While gold bulls have an even chance of seizing the momentum, it appears that inaction has been the greater part of their valor.