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Goldman raises Brent price outlook on unresolved supply deficit

(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) increased its Brent oil price forecasts by $10 to $135 a barrel for the period between the second half of 2022 and the first half of next year,...
Goldman raises Brent price outlook on unresolved supply deficit © Reuters. Motorists queue at a gas station a day before an oil price hike, in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines, June 6, 2022. REUTERS/ Eloisa Lopez

(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) increased its Brent oil price forecasts by $10 to $135 a barrel for the period between the second half of 2022 and the first half of next year, reasoning that a structural supply deficit was still unresolved.

Prices would need to rise to the forecast level for supply to normalize by late 2023, analysts at the bank said in a note dated June 6.

A "politically created surplus" led by modest decline in Russian oil exports, large releases from Strategic Petroleum Reserves and stringent COVID-led lockdowns in China was ending as Chinese demand recovers and Russian output dips further due to the EU ban, Goldman said.

European Union leaders recently agreed an embargo on Russian crude imports that will take full effect by the end of 2022, aiming to halt 90% of Russia's crude imports into the 27-nation bloc by year-end.

The bank saw Russian production declining to 9.8 million barrels per day (bpd) by year-end from 10.8 million bpd in May, recovering slightly to 10 million bpd by December, 2023.

The market was tighter than expected through April as supply remains inelastic to the spike in prices, the Wall Street bank said.

"On the demand side, the negative global growth impulse remains insufficient to rebalance inventories at current prices. As a result, we believe oil prices need to rally further to normalize the unsustainably low levels of global oil inventories, as well as OPEC and refining spare capacities," it added.

Oil prices were stable on Tuesday, with Brent crude futures around $119.07 barrel, as the market balanced risk sentiment with supply concerns and the prospect of higher demand as China relaxes its COVID curbs. [O/R]

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

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Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

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Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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USD/JPY

157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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AUD/USD

0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

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USD/CAD

1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

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EUR/JPY

168.32

+0.10 (+0.06%)

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EUR/CHF

0.9808

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Gold Futures

2,295.80

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26.677

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4.5305

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85.62

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 EUR/USD1.0658↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2475↑ Sell
 USD/JPY157.91↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6469Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3780↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY168.32↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9808Neutral
 Gold2,295.80↑ Sell
 Silver26.677↑ Sell
 Copper4.5305↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI81.14↑ Sell
 Brent Oil85.62↑ Sell
 Natural Gas1.946↑ Sell
 US Coffee C213.73↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,920.55↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,035.69↑ Sell
 DAX17,921.95↑ Sell
 FTSE 1008,144.13Sell
 Hang Seng17,763.03↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,973.05↑ Sell
 IBEX 3510,854.40Neutral
 BASF49.155↑ Sell
 Bayer27.35↑ Sell
 Allianz266.60↑ Sell
 Adidas226.40↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.714Neutral
 Siemens AG175.90↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG15.010Neutral
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# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank8,300/ 8,500
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SJC 1L, 10L, 1KG8,300/ 8,520
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SJC 99,99%7,370/ 7,470
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Cập nhật lúc 10:45:15 01/05/2024
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