McDonald's is Jefferies' favorite offensive/defensive stock for 2023

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By Senad Karaahmetovic

Jefferies analysts hiked the price target on McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) stock to $315 per share (from the previous $305) and promoted the fast-food chain operator to the best defensive/offensive play in restaurants.

The analysts are growing increasingly bullish on MCD stock given the “looming recession,” but also taking into account an opportunity to gain additional market share in 2023. They draw comparisons to 2088/2009.

“In '08-09, all restaurant categories saw SSS negatively impacted but MCD US SSS outperformed the QSR segment avg by +380bps and the total industry avg by +700bps. MCD also continued to outperform peers in the following early cycle years… We expect MCD to best weather the storm against margin pressures once again and model coowned RLM, franchised margin, and overall op margin expansion in '23 and '24,” they explained in a client note.

The analysts also outlined several reasons why they see McDonald’s strongly positioned for 2023.

1. 85% of margin dollars are from the franchised businesses;
2. High visibility into multiple US SSS drivers;
3. IOM recovery continuing at modest pace even with less clarity in China;
4. Dividend and share repurchases supported by healthy B/S; and
5. Past recessionary periods showing relative strength.

McDonald’s stock price closed at $267.25 yesterday.