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  4. 'Positioning and Declining Inflation to Support Further Recovery' - JPMorgan
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'Positioning and Declining Inflation to Support Further Recovery' - JPMorgan

By Sam Boughedda JPMorgan analyst Marko Kolanovic told investors in a note Monday that declining inflation and very low investor positioning will support a further recovery in...
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'Positioning and Declining Inflation to Support Further Recovery' - JPMorgan 'Positioning and Declining Inflation to Support Further Recovery' - JPMorgan

By Sam Boughedda

JPMorgan analyst Marko Kolanovic told investors in a note Monday that declining inflation and very low investor positioning will support a further recovery in markets.

The analyst also maintained their stance that inflation will resolve on its own as "distortions fade, and likely drive a Fed pivot, while a stronger H2 recovery in China should provide support for the global cycle."

"This, in combination with still very low investor positioning, creates a positive environment for cyclical assets. We stay tactically neutral U.S. duration given low liquidity and August seasonals, while a challenging European growth backdrop is causing divergence between ECB and Fed, keeping us long 5y Germany vs U.S. and short 10y Italy vs Germany," wrote Kolanovic.

The analyst explained that persistent inflation leads them to price additional hikes in the U.K., while they see Euro credit as expensive after rallying with falling yields as a tailwind over the summer.

However, for the U.S., "incoming CPI releases (e.g. recent declines in gasoline, airfares, used cars, etc.) continue to support our call for a large but uneven fall in 2H22 inflation."

"The largest disinflationary impulse is expected to come in the U.S. followed by EM, while Europe inflation will remain higher due to Energy prices. EM central banks are likely to prove more sensitive to easing headline inflation and we see scope for a dovish pivot to continue to unfold in coming months. China can be desynchronized in terms of their business and earnings cycle, acting as a buffer to headwinds from Europe. Additionally, U.S. midterm elections could be a positive catalyst for risk assets in Q4."

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

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Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

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Sell (10)

USD/JPY

157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

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AUD/USD

0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

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USD/CAD

1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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EUR/JPY

168.32

+0.10 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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EUR/CHF

0.9808

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

Summary

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Gold Futures

2,295.80

-7.10 (-0.31%)

Summary

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Silver Futures

26.677

+0.023 (+0.09%)

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Copper Futures

4.5305

-0.0105 (-0.23%)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.14

-0.79 (-0.96%)

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Brent Oil Futures

85.62

-0.71 (-0.82%)

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1.946

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US Coffee C Futures

213.73

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Euro Stoxx 50

4,920.55

-60.54 (-1.22%)

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S&P 500

5,035.69

-80.48 (-1.57%)

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DAX

17,921.95

-196.37 (-1.08%)

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FTSE 100

8,144.13

-2.90 (-0.04%)

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Hang Seng

17,763.03

+16.12 (+0.09%)

Summary

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US Small Cap 2000

1,973.05

-42.98 (-2.13%)

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IBEX 35

10,854.40

-246.40 (-2.22%)

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Neutral

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BASF SE NA O.N.

49.155

+0.100 (+0.20%)

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Bayer AG NA

27.35

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

266.60

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Adidas AG

226.40

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.714

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Siemens AG Class N

175.90

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15.010

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 EUR/USD1.0658↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2475↑ Sell
 USD/JPY157.91↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6469Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3780↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY168.32↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9808Neutral
 Gold2,295.80↑ Sell
 Silver26.677↑ Sell
 Copper4.5305↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI81.14↑ Sell
 Brent Oil85.62↑ Sell
 Natural Gas1.946↑ Sell
 US Coffee C213.73↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,920.55↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,035.69↑ Sell
 DAX17,921.95↑ Sell
 FTSE 1008,144.13Sell
 Hang Seng17,763.03↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,973.05↑ Sell
 IBEX 3510,854.40Neutral
 BASF49.155↑ Sell
 Bayer27.35↑ Sell
 Allianz266.60↑ Sell
 Adidas226.40↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.714Neutral
 Siemens AG175.90↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG15.010Neutral
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# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank8,300/ 8,500
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Cập nhật 01-05-2024 10:45:19
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RON 95-V25.44025.940
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EUR26.475,3627.949,19
GBP30.873,5232.211,36
JPY156,74166,02
KRW15,9219,31
Cập nhật lúc 10:45:15 01/05/2024
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