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RBI may need to reload reserves as Indian rupee falls further - HDFC Bank economist

MUMBAI (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India may need to find ways to replenish its foreign exchange reserves such as encouraging non-resident Indians to deposit more funds, as it...
RBI may need to reload reserves as Indian rupee falls further - HDFC Bank economist © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A Reserve Bank of India (RBI) logo is seen at the gate of its office in New Delhi, India, November 9, 2018. REUTERS/Altaf Hussain/

MUMBAI (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India may need to find ways to replenish its foreign exchange reserves such as encouraging non-resident Indians to deposit more funds, as it looks to stabilise a depreciating rupee, HDFC Bank Chief Economist Abheek Barua said.

The Indian currency has weakened 9.5% so far this year, with the central bank defending the rupee via dollar sales that have depleted its forex reserves to $545 billion from the peak of $642 billion a year ago.

"The central bank should intervene to ensure that a falling currency does not eclipse India's fundamentals," Barua wrote in a note this week.

While there might be some benefits of a depreciated currency in closing the trade gap, the damage to the capital account in terms of reduced confidence of investors will outweigh this benefit, he said.

According to Barua, the central bank may need to think of ways to bulk up its forex reserves, should the pool shrink to near $500 billion in the coming months.

"More capital is needed at this stage to stabilise the rupee and enable the RBI to replenish its reserves chest," he said.

In July, the RBI had allowed banks to raise foreign currency non-resident deposits at higher costs and permitted foreign investors to buy shorter term local debt as a way to encourage more inflows.

Those measures have only helped marginally, analysts say.

It may be time for the central bank to ready other options such as those in 2013 when the rupee came under pressure due to the U.S. Federal Reserve announcing plans to taper bond purchases.

It may be time to think yet again of the taper tantrum playbook, subsidize forwards and get lumpy non-resident deposits in, Barua said.

"NRIs are sensitive to India's robust fundamentals and could be persuaded to deposit their dollars in India at attractive rates," he added.

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

USD/JPY

157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

USD/CAD

1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

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EUR/JPY

168.32

+0.10 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

0.9808

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

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Neutral

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Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

2,295.80

-7.10 (-0.31%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Silver Futures

26.677

+0.023 (+0.09%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Copper Futures

4.5305

-0.0105 (-0.23%)

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↑ Buy

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Buy (8)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.14

-0.79 (-0.96%)

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Brent Oil Futures

85.62

-0.71 (-0.82%)

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Natural Gas Futures

1.946

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US Coffee C Futures

213.73

-13.77 (-6.05%)

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Indicators:

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Euro Stoxx 50

4,920.55

-60.54 (-1.22%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (8)

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Sell (7)

S&P 500

5,035.69

-80.48 (-1.57%)

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DAX

17,921.95

-196.37 (-1.08%)

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FTSE 100

8,144.13

-2.90 (-0.04%)

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Sell

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Sell (4)

Hang Seng

17,763.03

+16.12 (+0.09%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

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Buy (1)

Sell (6)

US Small Cap 2000

1,973.05

-42.98 (-2.13%)

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↑ Sell

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

IBEX 35

10,854.40

-246.40 (-2.22%)

Summary

Neutral

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Sell (3)

BASF SE NA O.N.

49.155

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↑ Sell

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Bayer AG NA

27.35

-0.24 (-0.87%)

Summary

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

266.60

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Summary

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Moving Avg:

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Adidas AG

226.40

-5.90 (-2.54%)

Summary

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Sell (12)

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.714

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Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Siemens AG Class N

175.90

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Summary

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Deutsche Bank AG

15.010

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Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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 EUR/USD1.0658↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2475↑ Sell
 USD/JPY157.91↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6469Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3780↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY168.32↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9808Neutral
 Gold2,295.80↑ Sell
 Silver26.677↑ Sell
 Copper4.5305↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI81.14↑ Sell
 Brent Oil85.62↑ Sell
 Natural Gas1.946↑ Sell
 US Coffee C213.73↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,920.55↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,035.69↑ Sell
 DAX17,921.95↑ Sell
 FTSE 1008,144.13Sell
 Hang Seng17,763.03↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,973.05↑ Sell
 IBEX 3510,854.40Neutral
 BASF49.155↑ Sell
 Bayer27.35↑ Sell
 Allianz266.60↑ Sell
 Adidas226.40↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.714Neutral
 Siemens AG175.90↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG15.010Neutral
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