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Scale of UK's market slide spells out home truths

Friday, September 30, 2022
Scale of UK's market slide spells out home truths

By Andy Bruce and Vincent Flasseur

LONDON (Reuters) - This week's plunge in UK financial assets accelerated a longer historic decline signalling a loss of confidence among international investors that Britain may find hard to restore.

Markets have been in turmoil since finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng outlined a new economic agenda last Friday. The pound fell to a record low against the U.S. dollar just above $1.03 on Monday and British government bonds have endured some of their worst losses since modern records began.

Analysts with major international banks say the market moves indicate a sudden evaporation of investor confidence in Britain, built up over decades but questioned increasingly by investors since the 2016 vote for Brexit.

They are sceptical about Kwarteng's pledge that improved economic growth will pay for Britain's new high-spending, low-tax strategy, and are worried about the lack of detail on his stated commitment to fiscal responsibility.

Kwarteng says he will flesh out plans in a Nov. 23 budget statement.

Prime Minister Liz Truss on Thursday said the recent upheaval reflected global moves in markets.

While other currencies have fallen sharply against an ascendant U.S. dollar, and government bond yields around the world have been dragged higher by the Federal Reserve's push to raise U.S. interest rates, Britain is an outlier.

"UK fiscal policy is now firmly in the spotlight of the international investor community, with a loss of credibility that will be difficult to fully recover any time soon," J.P. Morgan economist Allan Monks said earlier this week.

The pound is vying with Japan's yen as the worst-performing G10 currency in the year to date against the dollar, with both down around 20%. Sterling has been the weakest G10 currency against the euro in the last three months.

Graphic: Major currencies vs. the dollar https://graphics.reuters.com/BRITAIN-MARKETS/znpneyzejvl/chart_eikon.jpg

British gilts have fared far worse than German, French or U.S. government debt, even accounting for currency moves.

The gap between 10-year British and German government bond yields blew out to 230 basis points at one point earlier this week - the widest since 1990.

Graphic: UK government bond yield spread UK government bond yield spread https://graphics.reuters.com/BRITAIN-MARKETS/lbvgnqgwrpq/chart.png

The difference between the two bond yields was for decades viewed as a gauge of Britain's inflation-fighting record versus low-inflation Germany, whose Bundesbank central bank the British sought to emulate.

The sustained narrowing of the spread after the Bank of England became operationally independent of the government in 1997 has long been viewed by British economic policymakers as a major achievement.

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

USD/JPY

157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

USD/CAD

1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Indicators:

Buy (7)

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EUR/JPY

168.32

+0.10 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

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Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

0.9808

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

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Neutral

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Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

2,295.80

-7.10 (-0.31%)

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Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Silver Futures

26.677

+0.023 (+0.09%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

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Copper Futures

4.5305

-0.0105 (-0.23%)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.14

-0.79 (-0.96%)

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Brent Oil Futures

85.62

-0.71 (-0.82%)

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Natural Gas Futures

1.946

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US Coffee C Futures

213.73

-13.77 (-6.05%)

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Euro Stoxx 50

4,920.55

-60.54 (-1.22%)

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Moving Avg:

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S&P 500

5,035.69

-80.48 (-1.57%)

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DAX

17,921.95

-196.37 (-1.08%)

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FTSE 100

8,144.13

-2.90 (-0.04%)

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Sell

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Buy (2)

Sell (4)

Hang Seng

17,763.03

+16.12 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

US Small Cap 2000

1,973.05

-42.98 (-2.13%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

IBEX 35

10,854.40

-246.40 (-2.22%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

BASF SE NA O.N.

49.155

+0.100 (+0.20%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

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Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Bayer AG NA

27.35

-0.24 (-0.87%)

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Moving Avg:

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

266.60

+0.30 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

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Adidas AG

226.40

-5.90 (-2.54%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

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Sell (7)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.714

-0.028 (-0.42%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

Siemens AG Class N

175.90

-1.74 (-0.98%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Deutsche Bank AG

15.010

-0.094 (-0.62%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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Sell (2)

 EUR/USD1.0658↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2475↑ Sell
 USD/JPY157.91↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6469Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3780↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY168.32↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9808Neutral
 Gold2,295.80↑ Sell
 Silver26.677↑ Sell
 Copper4.5305↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI81.14↑ Sell
 Brent Oil85.62↑ Sell
 Natural Gas1.946↑ Sell
 US Coffee C213.73↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,920.55↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,035.69↑ Sell
 DAX17,921.95↑ Sell
 FTSE 1008,144.13Sell
 Hang Seng17,763.03↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,973.05↑ Sell
 IBEX 3510,854.40Neutral
 BASF49.155↑ Sell
 Bayer27.35↑ Sell
 Allianz266.60↑ Sell
 Adidas226.40↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.714Neutral
 Siemens AG175.90↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG15.010Neutral
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