T-Mobile estimates adjusted at Oppenheimer to account for iPhone 14 shortages

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By Sam Boughedda

Oppenheimer analysts reduced its estimates for T-Mobile US (NASDAQ:TMUS) in a note to clients on Thursday but kept an Outperform rating and $190 price target on the stock.

The analysts told investors they are adjusting their T-Mobile model to account for the ongoing shortage of the new iPhone 14 model.

"We reduced our 4Q equipment revenue estimate from $5.2B to $4.8B. Accordingly, our total revenue estimate for FY22 decreased 60 bps. We lowered our FY22 EBITDA estimate by 40 bps. Our subscriber estimates remain unchanged," they said.

However, they believe TMUS will "enter 2023 with strong momentum and will continue to see major improvements in its network."

"We remain very positive on fixed wireless and TMUS will continue to benefit from value-seeking switchers who are self-selecting premium unlimited plans in which customers can bundle Home Internet with mobile and save $20/month. The company expects FWA quarterly net adds of around 500K through 2025. We expect this to accelerate in 2024, but even at this pace TMUS will exceed its 7–8M target," the analysts added.

Meanwhile, at Wolfe Research, analysts maintained an Outperform rating and $168 price target on T-Mobile, telling investors in a memo that the firm is updating its estimates, "primarily to reflect a slightly lower rate of postpaid phone and Home Internet subscriber growth in 4Q'22."

"Net net, we modestly lowered 4Q revenue (by 40bps to $20.828B vs. FS $20.800B), core adj. EBITDA (by 50bps to $6.590B vs. FS $6.607B), and EPS (by $0.02 to $1.07 vs. FS $1.05). Most notable among our 4Q changes were a reduction in postpaid phone net adds to 900k from 1.0M, and a decline in Home Internet net adds to 550k from 600k (we also lowered '23 net adds to 2.0M from 2.2M)," the analysts confirmed.

T-Mobile US shares are down 1.44% Thursday at the time of writing.