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  4. UBS Raises Probability of US Recession to 60% from 40%
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UBS Raises Probability of US Recession to 60% from 40%

By Senad Karaahmetovic A UBS economist sees increased chances of a U.S. recession within a year, taking into account the latest data. The aggregate probability of a recession...
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UBS Raises Probability of US Recession to 60% from 40% © Reuters. UBS Raises Probability of US Recession to 60% from 40%

By Senad Karaahmetovic

A UBS economist sees increased chances of a U.S. recession within a year, taking into account the latest data.

The aggregate probability of a recession within a year now sits at 60%, up from 40% in June. UBS measures the recession chances on a monthly basis, taking into account data from hard macro, the UST yield curve, and credit.

“The probability of being in a contractionary phase is historically very high--94% in July vs 35% in April--but in the current case, the US team's modal forecast is that the contraction does not morph into a full-blown recession. The contributions of the components to the factor over the past few months are mixed in July, labor and housing data pulled the factor down, but industrial production and household spending actually held it up,” the economist said in a client note.

As far as the yield curve is concerned, the probability of U.S. recession is now at 71%, up from 57% in June.

“Our aggregate of 60% is computed with this figure; when using instead the end of July number to align with the monthly hard data in hand, the aggregate indicator is 55% for July,” the economist clarified.

On the other hand, the recession signal from credit data is “still benign,” as it stands at 15% for July.

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

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 EUR/USD1.0658↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2475↑ Sell
 USD/JPY157.91↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6469Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3780↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY168.32↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9808Neutral
 Gold2,295.80↑ Sell
 Silver26.677↑ Sell
 Copper4.5305↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI81.14↑ Sell
 Brent Oil85.62↑ Sell
 Natural Gas1.946↑ Sell
 US Coffee C213.73↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,920.55↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,035.69↑ Sell
 DAX17,921.95↑ Sell
 FTSE 1008,144.13Sell
 Hang Seng17,763.03↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,973.05↑ Sell
 IBEX 3510,854.40Neutral
 BASF49.155↑ Sell
 Bayer27.35↑ Sell
 Allianz266.60↑ Sell
 Adidas226.40↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.714Neutral
 Siemens AG175.90↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG15.010Neutral
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