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Asia FX Edges Lower as Dollar Steadies Ahead of Midterm Election

By Ambar Warrick AiVIF.com-- Most Asian currencies fell slightly on Tuesday as the dollar stabilized after recent losses, with focus now turning to the U.S. midterm elections,...
Asia FX Edges Lower as Dollar Steadies Ahead of Midterm Election © Reuters.
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By Ambar Warrick

AiVIF.com-- Most Asian currencies fell slightly on Tuesday as the dollar stabilized after recent losses, with focus now turning to the U.S. midterm elections, which could herald major changes in U.S. economic policy.

U.S. voters are set to decide on which party will take both bodies in Congress in what appears set to be a heavily contested election between the incumbent Democrats and the Republicans. An element of caution also persisted in markets ahead of the election.

China’s yuan fell 0.1%, while the offshore yuan lost 0.2% amid waning hopes that the government will scale back COVID lockdowns in the near future.

But the currency still retained gains made over the past week, when speculation over the lifting of lockdowns drove a mad rush into heavily discounted Chinese markets.

The Japanese yen traded flat at about 146.64 to the dollar but was trading near its strongest level to the dollar in nearly a month. The currency, which plummeted to a 32-year low in October, took great relief from a softer dollar.

But Japan's foreign exchange reserves fell further in October, as the government ramped up intervention efforts to support the yen

Asian currencies logged strong gains over the past two sessions, helped chiefly by a weaker dollar after several Fed members said they supported smaller interest rate hikes going forward.

Such a scenario would entail lesser immediate pressure on Asian economies from rising U.S. interest rates, which is beneficial for regional currencies. The dollar index and dollar index futures both rose 0.2% on Tuesday, but were trading close to a two-week low, nursing an over 2% drop in the past two sessions.

Traders are now pricing in a 52% chance that the Fed will hike interest rates by 50 basis points in December- a smaller hike than the 75 basis point raise in November.

Focus this week is also on U.S. CPI inflation data due on Thursday, which is expected to show that price pressures remained stubbornly high in October. A stronger-than-expected reading could potentially ratchet up expectations of more hawkish moves by the Fed.

Rising U.S. interest rates weighed heavily on Asian markets this year, as the gap between risky and low-risk debt narrowed. Even if the Fed were to lower its pace of rate hikes, high U.S. rates are expected to continue weighing down Asian currencies this year.

Among Antipodean currencies, the Australian dollar shed 0.2% after data showed the country’s consumer sentiment fell sharply in early November due to rising interest rates and high inflation.

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

USD/JPY

157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

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AUD/USD

0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

USD/CAD

1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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EUR/JPY

168.32

+0.10 (+0.06%)

Summary

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EUR/CHF

0.9808

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

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Gold Futures

2,295.80

-7.10 (-0.31%)

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Silver Futures

26.677

+0.023 (+0.09%)

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Copper Futures

4.5305

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.14

-0.79 (-0.96%)

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Brent Oil Futures

85.62

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Natural Gas Futures

1.946

-0.009 (-0.46%)

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US Coffee C Futures

213.73

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Euro Stoxx 50

4,920.55

-60.54 (-1.22%)

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S&P 500

5,035.69

-80.48 (-1.57%)

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DAX

17,921.95

-196.37 (-1.08%)

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FTSE 100

8,144.13

-2.90 (-0.04%)

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Sell

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Hang Seng

17,763.03

+16.12 (+0.09%)

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Sell (12)

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Sell (6)

US Small Cap 2000

1,973.05

-42.98 (-2.13%)

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10,854.40

-246.40 (-2.22%)

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Neutral

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49.155

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27.35

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266.60

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Adidas AG

226.40

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.714

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Siemens AG Class N

175.90

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15.010

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    EUR/USD 1.0658 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2475 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 157.91 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6469 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3780 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 168.32 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9808 Neutral  
    Gold 2,295.80 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 26.677 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 4.5305 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 81.14 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 85.62 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 1.946 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 213.73 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,920.55 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 5,035.69 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 17,921.95 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 8,144.13 Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,763.03 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,973.05 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 10,854.40 Neutral  
    BASF 49.155 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 27.35 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 266.60 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 226.40 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 6.714 Neutral  
    Siemens AG 175.90 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 15.010 Neutral  
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SJC Eximbank8,300/ 8,500
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(0/ 0) # 550
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(0/ 0) # 386
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