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Asia FX pauses, dollar ticks lower ahead of CPI, Fed meeting

By Ambar Warrick AiVIF.com-- Most Asian currencies moved little on Tuesday, while the dollar ticked lower as caution kicked in ahead of key U.S. inflation data that is expected...
Asia FX pauses, dollar ticks lower ahead of CPI, Fed meeting © Reuters.
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By Ambar Warrick

AiVIF.com-- Most Asian currencies moved little on Tuesday, while the dollar ticked lower as caution kicked in ahead of key U.S. inflation data that is expected to define the path of monetary policy in the coming months.

The conclusion of a two-day Federal Reserve meeting is also awaited, with the central bank set to hike interest rates by a relatively smaller 50 basis points (bps) on Wednesday. But signals on future rate hikes will be closely watched.

Risk aversion largely persisted in markets, with Southeast Asian currencies logging bigger declines. The Philippine peso and Malaysian ringgit lost 0.5% each, while the Indonesian rupiah fell 0.3%.

The Chinese yuan and the Japanese yen moved less than 0.1% in either direction, with markets also awaiting economic prints from the two countries later this week. Chinese fixed asset investment, retail sales and industrial production data is expected to further outline the economic impact of COVID-19 lockdowns, even as the country begins scaling back several restrictions.

Japanese trade data is also expected to highlight continued pressure on the economy from a weakened yen, although some stability in commodity markets is expected to help ease surging imports.

The Indian rupee moved little on Tuesday after losing 0.3% in the prior session. Data released on Monday showed that consumer inflation eased further in the country in November, likely heralding a slower pace of interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank.

The dollar index and dollar futures fell 0.1% to below 105 points, with investors awaiting the U.S. consumer price index reading for November. While the data is expected to show that consumer inflation eased further in the month, any surprises to the upside could rattle markets with fears of more hawkish actions from the Fed.

Producer price index data for November also eased less than expected, heightening concerns over a strong CPI reading.

While the Fed has signaled it will hike rates at a slower pace in 2023, officials also warned that stubborn inflation will invite more rate hikes, which could see borrowing costs peak at higher-than-expected levels.

Such a scenario bodes poorly for Asian currencies, given that they logged sharp declines this year as U.S. interest rates rose.

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

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Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

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GBP/USD

1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

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USD/JPY

157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Buy (9)

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AUD/USD

0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

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USD/CAD

1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

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EUR/JPY

168.32

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EUR/CHF

0.9808

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17,763.03

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    EUR/USD 1.0658 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2475 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 157.91 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6469 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3780 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 168.32 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9808 Neutral  
    Gold 2,295.80 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 26.677 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 4.5305 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 81.14 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 85.62 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 1.946 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 213.73 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,920.55 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 5,035.69 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 17,921.95 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 8,144.13 Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,763.03 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,973.05 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 10,854.40 Neutral  
    BASF 49.155 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 27.35 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 266.60 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 226.40 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 6.714 Neutral  
    Siemens AG 175.90 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 15.010 Neutral  
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