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Yen perched near 7-month high as BOJ decision looms

By Tom Westbrook SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The dollar drifted up from multi-month lows on Tuesday, while the yen was perched near seven-month highs as investors held their breath for...
Yen perched near 7-month high as BOJ decision looms © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration
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By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The dollar drifted up from multi-month lows on Tuesday, while the yen was perched near seven-month highs as investors held their breath for a potential policy shift at the Bank of Japan.

The euro reached a nine-month high on Monday at $1.0874, but was last loitering around $1.0805.

The yen hit a top of 127.22 per dollar during Asia hours on Monday, before easing a little during a holiday-thinned U.S. session to sit around 128.96.

Speculation is building about a change or end to Japan's yield curve control policy, given that the market pushed 10-year yields above a ceiling set by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) of 0.5% on Friday and Monday and the amount of bond buying to defend it is starting to look unsustainable.

A newspaper report last week has also stoked expectation for a change, so traders are on the lookout for a sharp reaction even if the BOJ makes no move at its two-day meeting ending on Wednesday. The yen rose 3% against the dollar last week, and one-week implied volatility for dollar/yen is at its highest since March 2020.

"The market has run pretty hard with this story and is looking for a follow up," said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at brokerage IG Markets.

He sees three main possibilities: no policy change, a tweak similar to a move in December to widen the 10-year yield target band, and the total abandonment of the yield curve control policy, with the latter likely to drive the most extreme market response.

"The yen would explode higher, Japanese government bond yields would explode higher and global yields would go higher," he said.

Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar index bounced from a seven-month low of 101.77 made a day ago and held at 102.50. Sterling touched its highest since mid-December at $1.2288 before easing back to $1.2177 in Asia trade.

There was not a great deal of currency market reaction to stronger-than-expected Chinese growth data.

At 2.9% fourth-quarter year-on-year growth was far stronger than the 1.8% consensus forecast, helped by retail sales falling a lot less than feared in December. Economists said that bodes well for recovery, but markets were less sure about how to take the surprise and sent the yuan a little bit lower.

The Chinese currency last traded about 0.3% weaker at 6.7586 per dollar.

The Australian dollar, which hit a five-month high just above $0.70 on Monday and wobbled around $0.6960. The New Zealand dollar held at $0.6394. [AUD/]

Traders are looking ahead British labour data, U.S. earnings and Canadian inflation figures later in the day.

Bitcoin which has been on a tear in recent days steadied above $20,000 and last bought $21,074.

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EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

USD/JPY

157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

USD/CAD

1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

168.32

+0.10 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

0.9808

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

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Indicators:

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Sell (2)

Gold Futures

2,295.80

-7.10 (-0.31%)

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Moving Avg:

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Silver Futures

26.677

+0.023 (+0.09%)

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Moving Avg:

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Copper Futures

4.5305

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Moving Avg:

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Buy (8)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.14

-0.79 (-0.96%)

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

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Brent Oil Futures

85.62

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Moving Avg:

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Natural Gas Futures

1.946

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US Coffee C Futures

213.73

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Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

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Sell (10)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,920.55

-60.54 (-1.22%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

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Sell (7)

S&P 500

5,035.69

-80.48 (-1.57%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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DAX

17,921.95

-196.37 (-1.08%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

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Sell (6)

FTSE 100

8,144.13

-2.90 (-0.04%)

Summary

Sell

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Buy (5)

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Buy (2)

Sell (4)

Hang Seng

17,763.03

+16.12 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

US Small Cap 2000

1,973.05

-42.98 (-2.13%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

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Buy (0)

Sell (7)

IBEX 35

10,854.40

-246.40 (-2.22%)

Summary

Neutral

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Buy (6)

Sell (6)

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Buy (3)

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49.155

+0.100 (+0.20%)

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27.35

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

266.60

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Adidas AG

226.40

-5.90 (-2.54%)

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.714

-0.028 (-0.42%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Buy (9)

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Siemens AG Class N

175.90

-1.74 (-0.98%)

Summary

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Deutsche Bank AG

15.010

-0.094 (-0.62%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

    EUR/USD 1.0658 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2475 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 157.91 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6469 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3780 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 168.32 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9808 Neutral  
    Gold 2,295.80 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 26.677 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 4.5305 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 81.14 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 85.62 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 1.946 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 213.73 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,920.55 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 5,035.69 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 17,921.95 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 8,144.13 Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,763.03 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,973.05 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 10,854.40 Neutral  
    BASF 49.155 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 27.35 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 266.60 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 226.40 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 6.714 Neutral  
    Siemens AG 175.90 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 15.010 Neutral  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank8,300/ 8,500
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