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Despite inflation, the dollar may exceed 115 in 2023 - iBanFirst

By Alessandro Albano AiVIF.com - Since its mid-September peak, the U.S. dollar has experienced a phase of depreciation due to easing inflation that could lead to a slowdown in...
Despite inflation, the dollar may exceed 115 in 2023 - iBanFirst © Reuters
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By Alessandro Albano

AiVIF.com - Since its mid-September peak, the U.S. dollar has experienced a phase of depreciation due to easing inflation that could lead to a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening cycle.

With inflation slowed to 7.1%, as shown today in data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the dollar is rapidly losing ground against major currencies such as the euro, sterling, and yen.

According to several economists, the dollar has already peaked in this cycle and will continue to fall toward 100, while predicting a rapid decline in U.S. inflation in the coming months, easing market tensions.

For others, however, the depreciation is only a temporary phase, so the greenback will appreciate again if the risks associated with the global recession materialize.

This view is also shared by iBanFirst's analysts, according to whom "we are facing an economic universe in which the dollar will remain strong for a long time and may exceed 115."

Based on the real effective exchange rate (which measures the valuation of one currency against another), the U.S. dollar is 34% overvalued against the euro, for example. "This is an all-time high," explained Michele Sansone, iBanFirst's country manager in Italy.

Furthermore, in absolute terms, inflation continues to be a concern. "It is true that inflation in the United States is easing from the peak reached last June," Sansone explained, "but the starting point (around 10%) technically leaves the Fed with no choice but to continue tightening monetary policy in the coming months (even if growth were to slow down) in order to return to the explicit target of 4%."

Adding to this is the resurgence of COVID cases in China which, according to iBanFirst, is "another explanation for the dollar's domino-effect appreciation."

"Whereas before COVID China contributed about 30% to world growth, the contribution has since fallen to 10%. This means that, unlike the 2007-08 crisis, the country will not save the world economy this time. In addition, periods of economic turbulence tend to be synonymous with a strong dollar," Sansone emphasized.

(Translated from Italian)

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

USD/JPY

157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

USD/CAD

1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

168.32

+0.10 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

0.9808

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

2,295.80

-7.10 (-0.31%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Silver Futures

26.677

+0.023 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Copper Futures

4.5305

-0.0105 (-0.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.14

-0.79 (-0.96%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Brent Oil Futures

85.62

-0.71 (-0.82%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Natural Gas Futures

1.946

-0.009 (-0.46%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (5)

US Coffee C Futures

213.73

-13.77 (-6.05%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,920.55

-60.54 (-1.22%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

S&P 500

5,035.69

-80.48 (-1.57%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

DAX

17,921.95

-196.37 (-1.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

FTSE 100

8,144.13

-2.90 (-0.04%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

Hang Seng

17,763.03

+16.12 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

US Small Cap 2000

1,973.05

-42.98 (-2.13%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

IBEX 35

10,854.40

-246.40 (-2.22%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

BASF SE NA O.N.

49.155

+0.100 (+0.20%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Bayer AG NA

27.35

-0.24 (-0.87%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

266.60

+0.30 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Adidas AG

226.40

-5.90 (-2.54%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.714

-0.028 (-0.42%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

Siemens AG Class N

175.90

-1.74 (-0.98%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Deutsche Bank AG

15.010

-0.094 (-0.62%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

    EUR/USD 1.0658 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2475 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 157.91 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6469 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3780 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 168.32 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9808 Neutral  
    Gold 2,295.80 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 26.677 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 4.5305 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 81.14 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 85.62 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 1.946 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 213.73 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,920.55 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 5,035.69 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 17,921.95 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 8,144.13 Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,763.03 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,973.05 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 10,854.40 Neutral  
    BASF 49.155 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 27.35 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 266.60 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 226.40 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 6.714 Neutral  
    Siemens AG 175.90 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 15.010 Neutral  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank8,300/ 8,500
(8,300/ 8,500) # 1,298
SJC 1L, 10L, 1KG8,300/ 8,520
(0/ 0) # 1,510
SJC 1c, 2c, 5c7,380/ 7,550
(0/ 0) # 540
SJC 0,5c7,380/ 7,560
(0/ 0) # 550
SJC 99,99%7,370/ 7,470
(0/ 0) # 460
SJC 99%7,196/ 7,396
(0/ 0) # 386
Cập nhật 01-05-2024 10:45:19
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$2,285.72 -47.5 -2.04%
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Sản phẩm Vùng 1 Vùng 2
RON 95-V25.44025.940
RON 95-III24.91025.400
E5 RON 92-II23.91024.380
DO 0.05S20.71021.120
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Dầu hỏa 2-K20.68021.090
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WTI $80.83 +3.39 0.04%
Brent $85.50 +3.86 0.05%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
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USD25.088,0025.458,00
EUR26.475,3627.949,19
GBP30.873,5232.211,36
JPY156,74166,02
KRW15,9219,31
Cập nhật lúc 10:45:15 01/05/2024
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