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Oil recovers from early decline, outlook clouded by China and global economy

By Florence Tan and Trixie Sher Li Yap SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices held in a narrow range on Tuesday, though the outlook for demand was clouded by a weak manufacturing...
Oil recovers from early decline, outlook clouded by China and global economy © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Pump jacks of Wintershall DEA are pictured in Emlichheim near the northern German city of Meppen, Germany, March 9, 2022. REUTERS/Fabian Bimmer
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By Florence Tan and Trixie Sher Li Yap

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices held in a narrow range on Tuesday, though the outlook for demand was clouded by a weak manufacturing activity survey from China, and a warning from the head of the International Monetary Fund that the global economy faced a tough year ahead.

Brent crude futures recovered from their early weakness, when prices fell by $1 a barrel, rebounding to $86.29 a barrel by 0737 GMT, an increase of 38 cents, or 0.44%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $80.77 a barrel, up by 51 cents, or 0.64%.

"This is likely (to be a) volatility play," said head of APAC analysis at Vortexa Serena Huang.

Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda (NASDAQ:VNDA) Insights in Singapore, said little had changed during the last weeks of December.

"But there are a few factors in flux, major among them being the economy and China's COVID exit, and factoring that in isn't easy," she added.

The weak factory survey from China, the world's largest crude importer and second-largest oil consumer, was a bearish factor. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 49.0 in December from 49.4 in November. The index has stayed below the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction for five straight months.

"The market cannot expect a rapid recovery of the Chinese economy after three years of (pandemic controls), the mass bankruptcy of small and medium-sized enterprises, the soaring unemployment rate, the rapid increase in the social savings rate, and the rapid growth in the number of infections and deaths in recent months," said Leon Li, an analyst with CMC Markets in China.

This followed news of a larger-than-expected increase in the first batch of oil product export quotas for 2023 released by China's government. A handful traders attributed that to expectations of poor domestic demand as the country continued to battle waves of COVID-19 infections.

Further darkening the outlook, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Sunday that the United States, Europe and China - the main engines of global growth - were all slowing simultaneously, making 2023 tougher than 2022 for the global economy.

Oil prices had settled more than 2% higher on Friday, with Brent and WTI ending 2022 up 10.5% and 6.7% on a year before, respectively.

Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) analysts said in a note dated Jan. 3 that the week that ended on Dec. 27, had seen the single largest weekly flow of funds into commodities during 2022.

They said that out of $12.3 billion that flowed into commodities that week some $3.4 billion went into Brent, largely in reaction to Russia's combative response to the EU and G7 imposed price cap on Russian crude exports to third parties.

President Vladimir Putin banned the supply of crude and oil products from Feb. 1 for five months to nations that abided by the cap. His decree also included a clause that allowed him to overrule the ban in special cases.

Russian crude has been diverted to India and China from Europe. Traders said Moscow planned to increase diesel exports from the Baltic sea port of Primorsk to 1.81 million tonnes in January, but exports from Tuapse were expected to fall to 1.333 million tonnes.

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BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

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USD/JPY

157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Indicators:

Buy (9)

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AUD/USD

0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

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Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

USD/CAD

1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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EUR/JPY

168.32

+0.10 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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EUR/CHF

0.9808

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

Summary

Neutral

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Gold Futures

2,295.80

-7.10 (-0.31%)

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Silver Futures

26.677

+0.023 (+0.09%)

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Copper Futures

4.5305

-0.0105 (-0.23%)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.14

-0.79 (-0.96%)

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Brent Oil Futures

85.62

-0.71 (-0.82%)

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Natural Gas Futures

1.946

-0.009 (-0.46%)

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US Coffee C Futures

213.73

-13.77 (-6.05%)

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Euro Stoxx 50

4,920.55

-60.54 (-1.22%)

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S&P 500

5,035.69

-80.48 (-1.57%)

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DAX

17,921.95

-196.37 (-1.08%)

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FTSE 100

8,144.13

-2.90 (-0.04%)

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Sell

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Hang Seng

17,763.03

+16.12 (+0.09%)

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US Small Cap 2000

1,973.05

-42.98 (-2.13%)

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IBEX 35

10,854.40

-246.40 (-2.22%)

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Neutral

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49.155

+0.100 (+0.20%)

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Bayer AG NA

27.35

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

266.60

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Adidas AG

226.40

-5.90 (-2.54%)

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.714

-0.028 (-0.42%)

Summary

Neutral

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Siemens AG Class N

175.90

-1.74 (-0.98%)

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Deutsche Bank AG

15.010

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    EUR/USD 1.0658 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2475 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 157.91 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6469 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3780 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 168.32 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9808 Neutral  
    Gold 2,295.80 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 26.677 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 4.5305 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 81.14 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 85.62 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 1.946 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 213.73 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,920.55 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 5,035.69 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 17,921.95 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 8,144.13 Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,763.03 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,973.05 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 10,854.40 Neutral  
    BASF 49.155 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 27.35 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 266.60 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 226.40 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 6.714 Neutral  
    Siemens AG 175.90 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 15.010 Neutral  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank8,300/ 8,500
(8,300/ 8,500) # 1,298
SJC 1L, 10L, 1KG8,300/ 8,520
(0/ 0) # 1,510
SJC 1c, 2c, 5c7,380/ 7,550
(0/ 0) # 540
SJC 0,5c7,380/ 7,560
(0/ 0) # 550
SJC 99,99%7,370/ 7,470
(0/ 0) # 460
SJC 99%7,196/ 7,396
(0/ 0) # 386
Cập nhật 01-05-2024 10:45:19
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$2,285.72 -47.5 -2.04%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩm Vùng 1 Vùng 2
RON 95-V25.44025.940
RON 95-III24.91025.400
E5 RON 92-II23.91024.380
DO 0.05S20.71021.120
DO 0,001S-V21.32021.740
Dầu hỏa 2-K20.68021.090
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI $80.83 +3.39 0.04%
Brent $85.50 +3.86 0.05%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD25.088,0025.458,00
EUR26.475,3627.949,19
GBP30.873,5232.211,36
JPY156,74166,02
KRW15,9219,31
Cập nhật lúc 10:45:15 01/05/2024
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