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U.S. dollar rises vs most currencies ahead of inflation data, Fed meeting

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar gained against most currencies on Monday in choppy trading ahead of key data expected to show U.S. inflation moderating...
U.S. dollar rises vs most currencies ahead of inflation data, Fed meeting © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. Dollar banknote is seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
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By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar gained against most currencies on Monday in choppy trading ahead of key data expected to show U.S. inflation moderating in November on a year-on-year basis, and a Federal Reserve decision that likely slows the pace of rate increases at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday.

Since a peak in late September, the dollar index has declined by more the 8%, with the greenback expected to have diminished appeal with lower yields in assets such as Treasuries as the Fed slows down.

In afternoon trading, the dollar rose 0.8% against the Japanese currency to 137.71 yen

It also climbed versus the Swiss franc, up 0.2% at 0.9348 francs, advancing as well versus the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which fell 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively.

The euro was flat against the dollar, trading at $1.0535. The single European currency has gained almost 8% so far in the fourth quarter, with investors having previously banked on the European Central Bank sticking to a course of aggressive rate hikes.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's value against six major currencies, was flat at 105.1.

"We have felt that the dollar has peaked and we felt kind of that way for several weeks. We think that the breakdown is there since the peak in September and a double-top test in late October," said Amo Sahota, executive director at FX consulting firm Klarity FX in San Francisco.

"That doesn't mean that the dollar will go directly lower from here. It can stay elevated but nowhere near the highs, not without fresh impetus."

Consumer inflation data for November lands on Tuesday and is expected to show a 6.1% rise on a year-on-year basis in the core reading, which excludes food and energy prices, down from 6.3% in October.

"The weaker dollar is signalling that the market is seeing lower inflation and it is hearing what (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell is saying: that the Fed is cutting back on the pace of its rate increases and the market is pricing all that in," said Joe Perry, senior market analyst at FOREX.com and City Index in New York.

This week is also one of the most macro-packed so far this year, with four major central banks holding their final policy meetings of 2022.

The Fed, the ECB, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank will all release rate decisions this week.

The Fed is widely expected to deliver a rate hike of 50 basis points (bps) after a series of 75-basis-point increases. Investors will be keen to find out whether the Fed's rate forecasts exceed 5%. For now, fed funds futures have priced in a terminal rate, or the level in which the Fed will stop hiking, of 4.984%, seen hitting in May.

The dollar briefly rose as much as 0.5% against the pound after data showed the UK economy recovered in October after the hit from a public holiday for Queen Elizabeth's funeral the month before, but still pointed to a bleak outlook. Sterling was last flat at $1.2270.

The offshore Chinese yuan slipped 0.3% against the U.S. currency to 6.996 per dollar, further pressured by worries over a potential spike in COVID cases as China eases its stringent COVID-19 restrictions.

========================================================

Currency bid prices at 3:55PM (2055 GMT)

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Previous Change

Session

Dollar index 105.0200 105.0500 -0.01% 9.781% +105.2500 +104.6600

Euro/Dollar $1.0534 $1.0531 +0.03% -7.34% +$1.0580 +$1.0507

Dollar/Yen 137.7300 136.5700 +0.85% +19.64% +137.8450 +136.5700

Euro/Yen 145.09 143.85 +0.86% +11.33% +145.1000 +143.7300

Dollar/Swiss 0.9366 0.9348 +0.18% +2.66% +0.9379 +0.9315

Sterling/Dollar $1.2267 $1.2267 +0.02% -9.28% +$1.2298 +$1.2207

Dollar/Canadian 1.3627 1.3647 -0.15% +7.77% +1.3683 +1.3619

Aussie/Dollar $0.6749 $0.6796 -0.70% -7.16% +$0.6798 +$0.6729

Euro/Swiss 0.9864 0.9838 +0.26% -4.87% +0.9873 +0.9836

Euro/Sterling 0.8585 0.8596 -0.13% +2.20% +0.8616 +0.8575

NZ $0.6384 $0.6415 -0.48% -6.73% +$0.6422 +$0.6367

Dollar/Dollar

Dollar/Norway 9.9840 10.0050 -0.17% +13.37% +10.0320 +9.9660

Euro/Norway 10.5156 10.5204 -0.05% +5.02% +10.5834 +10.5118

Dollar/Sweden 10.3404 10.3332 +0.32% +14.67% +10.3715 +10.2930

Euro/Sweden 10.8930 10.8586 +0.32% +6.44% +10.9180 +10.8705

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EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

USD/JPY

157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

USD/CAD

1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

168.32

+0.10 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

0.9808

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

2,295.80

-7.10 (-0.31%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Silver Futures

26.677

+0.023 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Copper Futures

4.5305

-0.0105 (-0.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.14

-0.79 (-0.96%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Brent Oil Futures

85.62

-0.71 (-0.82%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Natural Gas Futures

1.946

-0.009 (-0.46%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (5)

US Coffee C Futures

213.73

-13.77 (-6.05%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,920.55

-60.54 (-1.22%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

S&P 500

5,035.69

-80.48 (-1.57%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

DAX

17,921.95

-196.37 (-1.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

FTSE 100

8,144.13

-2.90 (-0.04%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

Hang Seng

17,763.03

+16.12 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

US Small Cap 2000

1,973.05

-42.98 (-2.13%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

IBEX 35

10,854.40

-246.40 (-2.22%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

BASF SE NA O.N.

49.155

+0.100 (+0.20%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Bayer AG NA

27.35

-0.24 (-0.87%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

266.60

+0.30 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Adidas AG

226.40

-5.90 (-2.54%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.714

-0.028 (-0.42%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

Siemens AG Class N

175.90

-1.74 (-0.98%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Deutsche Bank AG

15.010

-0.094 (-0.62%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

    EUR/USD 1.0658 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2475 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 157.91 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6469 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3780 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 168.32 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9808 Neutral  
    Gold 2,295.80 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 26.677 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 4.5305 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 81.14 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 85.62 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 1.946 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 213.73 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,920.55 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 5,035.69 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 17,921.95 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 8,144.13 Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,763.03 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,973.05 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 10,854.40 Neutral  
    BASF 49.155 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 27.35 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 266.60 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 226.40 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 6.714 Neutral  
    Siemens AG 175.90 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 15.010 Neutral  
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SJC Eximbank8,300/ 8,500
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