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U.S. dollar 'true' peak still a couple of quarters away -Goldman

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors anxious to determine when the dollar should hit its peak may have to wait a few more quarters, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said in a research note on...
U.S. dollar 'true' peak still a couple of quarters away -Goldman © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration//File Photo
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors anxious to determine when the dollar should hit its peak may have to wait a few more quarters, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said in a research note on Friday.

Based on historical cycles, Goldman said, peaks in the dollar are typically associated with a "trough in measures of U.S. and global growth", and an easing Federal Reserve.

A dollar top would still appear to be "several quarters away," said Goldman, noting it does not expect the Fed to embark on easing until 2024. It added that U.S. growth is not expected to bottom out soon.

The U.S. investment bank noted that the dollar has drawn support from steady U.S. economic activity and still elevated inflation despite a slew of big rate hikes. The Fed has acknowledged that the concept of a "restrictive" policy rate is a moving target and estimates of the cyclical neutral rate have increased.

Goldman economists now expect a longer hiking cycle and an even higher terminal rate, in line with the Fed.

The euro area, on the other hand, still faces stiff challenges from energy shortages, while the smaller G10 economies are more sensitive to higher rates, or changes to policy rates, due in a part to the increase in variable rate mortgages.

In contrast, Goldman said the U.S. economy has a brighter economic outlook and may be less sensitive to higher rates, which should support the dollar.

Goldman's three-month forecast calls for the euro hitting $0.94 against the dollar, down about 9% from the current level. On Friday, the euro was flat at $1.0356.

Goldman said the eventual dollar peak should coincide with better global growth prospects and renewed capital flows abroad.

Still, Goldman said the dollar's highest level could come sooner than expected if the Fed pauses rate hikes, a path toward a more stable energy supply emerges in Europe or China reopens its economy faster.

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    EUR/USD 1.0658 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2475 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 157.91 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6469 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3780 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 168.32 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9808 Neutral  
    Gold 2,295.80 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 26.677 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 4.5305 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 81.14 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 85.62 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 1.946 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 213.73 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,920.55 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 5,035.69 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 17,921.95 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 8,144.13 Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,763.03 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,973.05 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 10,854.40 Neutral  
    BASF 49.155 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 27.35 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 266.60 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 226.40 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 6.714 Neutral  
    Siemens AG 175.90 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 15.010 Neutral  
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